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CREDIT PERFORMANCE CALCULATOR

What could lower credit losses be worth to your portfolio?

Built for banks, non-bank lenders and lending teams.

Explore how a reduction in defaults could affect your lending portfolio. Use your loan volumes, average loan amount and loss assumptions to estimate the potential financial benefit. Instant scenario estimate. No contact details required.

ILLUSTRATIVE MODEL

Estimate the value of reducing credit losses

Explore how sharper risk assessment could affect defaults and credit losses. Enter your own portfolio figures, then set an improvement scenario. Results are estimates, not a forecast of Carrington Labs performance.

Illustrative starting values — update for your portfolio.

Your business today

Figures you supply about your current portfolio.

Explore lower defaults with Carrington Labs models

See what a reduction in your default rate could mean for your portfolio.

Illustrative scenarios. Validate the potential improvement with a backtest or PoC.

Estimated credit losses avoided

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For one month’s funded loans.

Default rate—→—
  • Expected defaults avoided—
  • Baseline expected credit losses—
  • Scenario expected credit losses—
  • Estimated model enquiry cost—
  • Indicative benefit after enquiry costs—

Enquiry cost uses a configurable starting rate of US$3 per enquiry; actual pricing may vary.

Share your figures with our team to discuss an assessment, backtest or PoC.

Validate this scenario

Take your estimate further

The calculator shows what an improvement could be worth. A detailed assessment helps identify which assumptions matter most, what relevant data is available and how we could test the opportunity against your current approach.

What happens next

  1. We review the scenario and business figures you submit.
  2. We clarify the product, portfolio segment and outcomes you want to assess.
  3. We identify a suitable scope for a backtest or proof of concept.

Share your scenario and a little more about your portfolio. Our team will review the request and discuss the next step. This does not generate an automatic report.

Add more context (optional)

Credit losses avoided are expected losses for the loans funded in the period, over their outcome horizon — not cash saved within that period.

How is this calculated?

Small changes in default performance can have a meaningful financial impact

The value depends on more than the default rate. Lending volume, loan size and the amount lost after recoveries all affect the result.

Your starting position

Your current figures establish the baseline: how much you lend, how often loans default and how much is lost when they do.

The improvement you explore

An assumed reduction in defaults creates a comparison scenario. It is an input to test, rather than evidence of model performance.

The financial difference

The estimate translates the change into potential credit losses avoided. Where model enquiry costs are included, show their effect separately.

Better risk separation. A clearer view of the opportunity.

Carrington Labs develops credit risk models and analytics that help lenders distinguish between borrowers and assess potential changes to their lending strategy.

Model your portfolio

Develop a lender-specific risk model around your product, borrowers and observed repayment outcomes, using relevant data available to your business.

Compare with your current approach

Assess model performance against an agreed baseline and explore potential changes in credit losses at a comparable approval level.

Fit into your existing process

Receive model outputs through API or batch for use within your existing systems. Your team retains control over credit policy and final decisions.

Run a proof of concept in 48 hours.

Move from an illustrative estimate to evidence from your own portfolio. Once we’ve agreed the scope and have your data, we run the PoC against your current approach and deliver the findings within 48 hours.

  1. 1

    Agree the objective

    Choose the lending product, portfolio segment and outcome to test. Define the baseline and measures of success.

  2. 2

    Confirm the relevant data

    Review available data, clarify definitions and agree a secure transfer method. Requirements depend on the model and use case.

  3. 3

    Run the agreed assessment

    Evaluate the model and backtest the relevant scenario against historical outcomes, subject to the agreed scope and available data.

  4. 4

    Review the findings

    Compare results, assess potential business implications and agree whether to proceed, refine the scope or investigate further.

The 48 hours start once we’ve agreed the scope and your data is complete and ready. The PoC covers the agreed scope; production deployment is a separate step.

See the findings behind the business case

An agreed PoC can bring together model-performance findings and their potential financial implications, helping your team assess the case for deployment. Scope and deliverables are agreed before the 48-hour clock starts.

  1. Comparison with your current score, model or agreed baseline.

  2. Performance findings for the agreed population and outcome horizon.

  3. Scenario analysis of potential credit-loss impact.

  4. Key assumptions, limitations and recommendations.

  5. A proposed next step for further testing or implementation.

Frequently asked questions

Who is this calculator for?
It is designed for lending teams assessing portfolio performance. It is not a consumer repayment calculator or an assessment of whether an individual will qualify for a loan.
Does the estimate show what Carrington Labs will deliver?
No. It shows the value of an improvement you choose to explore. A backtest or PoC assesses whether the available evidence supports that improvement for your portfolio.
How is default reduction different from credit-loss reduction?
Default reduction concerns how often loans default. Credit losses also depend on the amount at risk and what is recovered. The calculator uses your loss-after-recoveries assumption to translate default changes into a dollar estimate.
Is the result ROI?
The initial result estimates potential credit-loss benefits. Where model enquiry costs are included, it can also show the benefit after those costs. A full ROI assessment requires all relevant investment and operating costs over a defined period.
What data do we need for a backtest or PoC?
The relevant data depends on the model, product and question being tested. We agree requirements during scoping, including outcome definitions and suitable historical performance information. Transaction data is not a universal requirement.
When does the 48-hour turnaround start?
It starts once we’ve agreed the scope and your data is complete and ready for assessment. The PoC findings for that scope are delivered within 48 hours. Production deployment is agreed separately.
Will we need to replace our decision engine?
Carrington Labs provides model outputs and analytics that can fit into existing systems through API or batch. Your team retains control over policy and final lending decisions.

What would better credit performance mean for your business?

Explore the potential savings, then work with Carrington Labs to test the opportunity on your portfolio.