Post-origination

Cashflow Servicing

See repayment risk building before a payment is missed.

Continuous monitoring of transaction, balance and repayment behavior that flags borrowers whose repayment risk is rising, signals portfolio deterioration, and prioritizes who to contact first.

Repayment risk: risingAlert

For illustrative purposes only

Risk flagElevated
Probability to pay next instalment58%
Next best actionProactive outreach
WHY THIS EXISTS

Monitoring that starts after the lending decision

Origination analytics decide who to lend to. Cashflow Servicing watches what happens after that decision, working at two levels at once: portfolio-level deterioration signals across segments and vintages, and borrower-level repayment risk with a prioritized queue of who to contact first. The result is visibility into repayment trouble weeks before a scheduled payment is actually missed.

Consumer lending and business lending

Monitoring is calibrated per lending product, because repayment patterns, servicing context and treatment options differ by product.

Consumer lending

For consumer lending, ongoing monitoring runs across cash advance, personal loans, BNPL, credit cards and lines of credit, auto, overdrafts and debt consolidation, with deterioration and repayment models calibrated to each product's own repayment pattern.

Cash advance
Personal loans
BNPL
Credit cards
Lines of credit
Auto
Overdrafts
Debt consolidation

Business lending

For business lending, the same monitoring applies across invoice financing, term loans, lines of credit, business credit cards, equipment finance, merchant cash advance and working capital, aligned to each product's own loan tape and servicing context.

What deterioration looks like before it becomes an arrear

One borrower, twelve weeks. The pattern that precedes a missed payment is usually visible well before the due date.

WeeksAccount balance024681012123456$0$1,000$2,000$3,000

Income deposits: on time at weeks 2 and 4, missed at week 6, partial or late at weeks 8, 10 and 12.

● Filled disc: income deposit on time
✕ Cross: income deposit missed
○ Hollow ring: income deposit partial or late
1Normal repayment behavior (week 1)
2Balances declining between pay cycles (week 5)
3Income deposit missed (week 6)
4Obligation pressure rising (week 7)
5Early-warning alert raised (week 9.5)
6Suggested action: proactive outreach (week 10). The missed payment follows at week 12, about 17 days after the alert.

Borrower level

Repayment risk flag, probability to pay the next instalment, and the signals behind it.

Portfolio level

Deterioration signals by segment, vintage and product.

Action level

A prioritized queue: who to contact first, and the suggested treatment.

Borrower 4471Elevated risk · 58% likely to pay next instalmentProactive outreach call
Borrower 2098Elevated risk · 63% likely to pay next instalmentPayment plan review
Borrower 6653Moderate risk · 86% likely to pay next instalmentSMS reminder

For illustrative purposes only

Ongoing behavior in, a prioritized action out

A persisted data connection keeps the view current between payments, not just at application.

A persisted connection to ongoing account and repayment behavior

Bank transactions

Balances

Payment history

Loan tape and schedule

Servicing context

Prior outreach outcomes

Cashflow Servicing

Monitoring and action models

Repayment risk flag

Probability to pay

Next best action

Want to see how portfolio and borrower-level signals turn into action before a payment is missed?

Portfolio signals and borrower actions, in the systems you already use

Flags, alerts and prioritized queues are delivered by API or batch into your servicing systems. Carrington Labs does not contact your customers or set treatment policy: you decide what action is taken.

LMS

CRM

Portfolio analytics

Decision engine

Scorecard

Origination platform

You retain full control of outreach timing, channel and treatment policy: Carrington Labs surfaces the signal, your servicing team decides the response.

Earlier signal than DPD buckets and payment-failure triggers

Continuous, not point-in-time

Your DPD buckets, payment-failure retries and collections triggers activate once a payment has already failed. A persisted data connection surfaces deterioration in transaction and balance behavior in the weeks before that failure, so outreach can start earlier in the cycle.

Three levels of output

A single flag rarely has enough context. Every output arrives with where it sits in the portfolio and where it ranks in the action queue, so no alert has to stand alone.

Built for action

Every alert carries signals and a suggested next best action, so servicing teams know why a borrower surfaced and what to do.

Detects deterioration before delinquency

The signals are behavioral and forward-looking, which is what makes contact possible weeks before arrears rather than at the point a payment fails.

How it runs and is maintained

Each step below keeps monitoring current as your portfolio and your outcomes evolve.

  1. 01

    Connect and persist

    Transaction, balance and repayment data is connected on an ongoing basis, de-identified.

  2. 02

    Align to your loan tape

    Monitoring is aligned to your repayment schedules and servicing context.

  3. 03

    Model and calibrate

    Deterioration and repayment models are calibrated to your portfolio and your treatment outcomes.

  4. 04

    Deliver into servicing

    Flags, alerts and queues are returned by API or batch into your LMS, CRM and portfolio reporting.

  5. 05

    Learn from outcomes

    Prior outreach outcomes feed back in, so prioritization improves as you act on it.

EVIDENCE

Measuring how much earlier you would have known

Early warning is assessed retrospectively on loans that have already run: apply the models to historical behavior and measure how far ahead of the missed payment the alert would have raised, and what share of eventual arrears would have been flagged. Lead time and capture rate are the two numbers that matter, and both are measured on your portfolio.

Illustrative back-test view
Median lead time before missed payment17 days
Share of arrears flagged in advance71%
Alert volumeTuned to your review capacity

Lead time and capture rate are measured retrospectively on your own loan history; figures shown are illustrative. Alert volume is not a fixed rate: it is tuned to the review capacity your team sets.

Governance, explainability and integration

Explainability, lender control and data handling built into every deployment.

  1. Explainable alerts

    Every risk flag returns its contributing signals in plain English, so your team can see why an account was surfaced.

  2. Lender-controlled decisioning

    Carrington Labs flags and prioritizes. Contact, hardship handling and treatment decisions remain entirely yours.

  3. Data handling

    Monitoring runs on the account, transaction and repayment activity you already hold post-origination, within the terms of your agreement. No new data collection is required, and no personally identifying fields are needed to raise a flag.

  4. Compliance-ready

    Each early-warning signal carries the account activity that triggered it, so servicing and risk teams can see exactly why an account was surfaced before contacting the borrower.

  5. Integration

    Risk flags, payment probabilities and next-best-action queues are delivered by API or scheduled batch into your loan management system, CRM or portfolio analytics dashboard, whichever your servicing team already works from.

Frequently asked questions

How early does it flag risk?
In back-tests the median lead time is 17 days before a missed payment. Exact lead time depends on the portfolio and the behavior involved, which is why it is also measured on your own history in a back-test; the goal is to detect deterioration before delinquency, not to guarantee a fixed number of days.
Does Carrington Labs contact our customers?
No. It produces flags, alerts and a prioritized queue. All contact and treatment is carried out by your team under your policy.
What data does it need on an ongoing basis?
A persisted connection to transaction and balance data, plus your loan tape, repayment schedule and servicing context, de-identified.
Does it replace our collections or hardship process?
No. It prioritizes who your existing process should reach first, and why.
How is it different from the Credit Risk Model?
The Credit Risk Model estimates default probability at decision time. Cashflow Servicing monitors behavior after origination and flags rising repayment risk during the life of the loan.
How are alerts delivered?
By API or batch into your LMS, CRM or portfolio reporting, at the frequency your servicing cycle requires.

Find out how much earlier you could have known.

A back-test on your own loan history measures lead time and capture rate against your current process, before anything is deployed.