Offer optimization

Credit Offer Engine

Turn a risk estimate into the offer that creates the most value.

Evaluate candidate amounts, terms and prices against your policy limits, and recommend the offer with the highest expected contribution that a borrower is likely to accept.

Request: $12,000 over 36 months

Borrower preferredHighest acceptance
Rate15.1%
Monthly payment$416
Expected contribution$1,002
Probability to accept88%
Optimal offerBest expected value
Rate18.1%
Monthly payment$434
Expected contribution$1,215
Probability to accept70%
Highest priceRuled out by acceptance floor
Rate23.6%
Monthly payment$468
Expected contribution$627
Probability to accept22%
WHY THIS EXISTS

Price and structure every offer for the most value you can lend

The Credit Offer Engine prices and structures each loan offer for the most expected value your policy allows, not just approves or declines it. It searches every amount, term and price you permit, estimates acceptance probability and expected loss for each candidate, and recommends the one offer that maximizes expected contribution: the value you would expect after accounting for both acceptance and default risk.

The Credit Risk Model estimates risk. The Credit Offer Engine converts that risk into the amount, term and price expected to create the most value within your constraints.

Your risk estimate and your policy, resolved into one offer

The risk estimate can come from a Carrington Labs model or from a validated model you supply.

Your constraints define the search space: the engine only recommends inside them

Cost of funds

Loss assumptions (LGD and EAD)

Price and term ranges you allow

Acceptance calibration data

Policy guardrails

Borrower risk estimate

Requested amount and term

Credit Offer Engine

Offer-level optimization within policy

Recommended offer

Expected loss

Expected contribution

Consumer lending and business lending

Calibration is per lending product, because exposure profiles differ, and so do the term and price ranges that are legal and sensible to offer.

Consumer lending

For consumer lending, offer optimization runs across cash advance, personal loans, BNPL, credit cards and lines of credit, auto, overdrafts and debt consolidation, with amount, term and price ranges calibrated to each product's own exposure and repayment pattern.

Cash advance
Personal loans
BNPL
Credit cards
Lines of credit
Auto
Overdrafts
Debt consolidation

Business lending

For business lending, the engine applies the same optimization across invoice financing, term loans, lines of credit, business credit cards, equipment finance, merchant cash advance and working capital, with ranges and limits calibrated separately, since exposure and repayment patterns differ from consumer lending.

Configure the constraints, see the offer change

Adjust the ranges and policy limits. The engine re-evaluates candidate offers and returns the one with the highest expected contribution that still satisfies every constraint.

Expected contribution and acceptance vs. price

Your selected price (drag me) Optimum Probability to accept Ruled out by your policy

This interactive chart and control panel need JavaScript. The recommended offer for the default request is $12,000 over 36 months at 18.1%, expected contribution $1,215.

Try a lending posture

Each posture sets amount, term and every policy floor at once, in one click.

Your ask

$12,000
36 months
Your policy Max PD 16.0% · Min margin 4.0% · Min acceptance 30.0% · Cost of funds 5.5%
16.0%
4.0%
30.0%
5.5%

Recommended offer

$12,000 over 36 months at 18.1%
Monthly payment$434
Expected probability of defaultLifetime, over the selected term9.95%
Expected loss55% loss given default, 70% exposure at default$460
Servicing and operating cost1.5%
Net interest marginPer annum: rate minus cost of funds minus servicing and operating cost11.1%
Margin dollars over the termNet interest margin per annum on 55% average outstanding balance, over the selected term$2,190
Contribution if fundedMargin dollars minus expected loss$1,731
Probability to accept× 70.2%
Expected contribution= $1,215

At the optimum for this amount and term.

Borrower-preferred offer: $12,000 over 36 months at 15.1%, three percentage points below the recommended price. Probability to accept 88.2%, expected contribution $1,002, lower value with higher acceptance.

Binding constraint: None. Your requested amount and term are fully priced within policy.

For illustrative purposes only: values are produced by a simplified demonstration model, not a live pricing engine.

Want to see the price and term trade-off play out on your own portfolio's numbers?

Where the recommended offer goes, and who approves it

Recommended offers are returned by API or batch into your origination workflow. Your policy limits define the search space, and final approval remains yours.

Decision engine

Scorecard

Origination platform

LMS

CRM

Portfolio analytics

You set the constraints (requested amount, term, price range and risk limits) and can override or reject any recommendation before it reaches the borrower.

What makes this different

Optimizes the offer, not just the decision

Amount, term and price are chosen together against expected contribution, rather than approving a requested offer as submitted.

Your constraints are the boundary

Maximum default probability, minimum margin, minimum acceptance probability and regulatory rate and term bounds are inputs, not suggestions.

Works with your risk model or ours

The default probability can come from a Carrington Labs model or a validated model you already use.

Returns alternatives, not a single answer

The recommended offer, the borrower's preferred offer and alternatives, each with the economics attached.

Configured to your policy, not retrained on your book

The Credit Risk Model is trained on your data. The Offer Engine is configured to your ranges, limits and constraints instead, then recalibrated as acceptance and margin outcomes shift.

  1. 01

    Define the search space

    We encode your amount, term, rate and fee ranges alongside your policy limits.

  2. 02

    Connect a risk estimate

    Either a Carrington Labs model or a validated model you supply.

  3. 03

    Calibrate acceptance and economics

    Acceptance behavior and contribution assumptions are fitted to your portfolio.

  4. 04

    Deploy

    Offer recommendations by API at decision time or by batch for pre-approved campaigns.

  5. 05

    Monitor and recalibrate

    Acceptance and margin outcomes are monitored, and assumptions recalibrated as behavior shifts.

Governance, explainability and integration

Explainability, lender control and data handling built into every deployment.

  1. Auditable price selection

    The Credit Offer Engine returns no score and makes no decision on the applicant. It selects a price point from the amount, term and price ranges you set, and when a candidate offer is ruled out, it names the constraint responsible.

  2. Lender-controlled decisioning

    You define the ranges and limits the engine may search. It cannot recommend an offer outside them, and final approval remains yours.

  3. Data handling

    The engine runs on the constraint set you configure (amount, term, price ranges, cost of funds) plus a PD estimate. No applicant transaction data or PII passes through it.

  4. Compliance-ready

    When limits conflict, it reports the closest feasible offer and names the conflicting pair, giving your team a clear audit trail. Final approval decisions remain yours throughout.

  5. Integration

    API at decision time or batch for campaigns, into your origination platform and CRM.

Frequently asked questions

Does it need a Carrington Labs risk model?
No. The default probability can come from a Carrington Labs model or from a validated model you supply.
Can it recommend an offer outside our policy?
No. Your ranges and limits define the search space, so every recommendation satisfies them by construction.
What happens when constraints conflict?
The engine returns the closest feasible offer and identifies which constraint is binding, so the trade-off is explicit rather than hidden.
Does it set our pricing strategy?
No. It selects within the pricing you already permit, optimizing expected contribution against acceptance probability and expected loss.
How is it delivered?
By API at decision time, or by batch for pre-approved and limit-increase campaigns.
How is the acceptance probability estimated?
It is fitted to your own portfolio behavior and recalibrated as that behavior shifts.

See the offers you would have made.

Re-run historical applications under your current policy and compare expected contribution.